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Business · Didymos

Could Didymos ever make money?

Three ways people could earn from Didymos, from the realistic (selling good analysis) to the very long-shot (shipping its regolith). Each has a simple model you can edit.

  • Uses 3
  • Calculators 3
  • Price free teaser

Please read: Space uses are speculative and long-horizon. Everything here is a simplified teaching model with assumptions you can change. Nothing on this page is investment advice.

The resource-case inputs come from our Space Resource Intelligence (SRI) sample model for Didymos. An ideal transfer there takes about 0.8 years, and no resource extraction from any small body has been demonstrated, so the near-term value is in analysis and science.

01Now

Research & data products

The opportunityTurn public telescope and mission science about Didymos into decision-ready briefs: what is known, what is guessed, and what it would take to get there.

Who pays

Space-focused venture investors, mining and aerospace strategy teams, space agencies and family offices.

Key risks

  • Small, specialised audience
  • The underlying data is public, so the value is all in analysis and trust
  • Findings can change quickly as new papers land
Simplified modelSell reports or subscriptions. Revenue = price × buyers. Costs = per-report research time plus a yearly fixed base (tools, data, editing).

Try the numbers (per year)

Revenue / year
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Costs / year
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Profit / year
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Margin
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Break-even
– reports
Payback on up-front cost
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The XLSX has a working Summary tab. The P&L, Capex and Sensitivity tabs are locked previews: they are in the full report, coming soon. We store your email to send you the link and a few short updates about the report. Unsubscribe any time. See our privacy page.

02Now to 10 years

Science-led partnerships

The opportunityPartner with agencies and universities on studies, observation campaigns or mission concepts involving Didymos. Revenue here comes from research budgets rather than resources.

Who pays

Space agencies, research councils and universities, through contracts and grants.

Key risks

  • Budgets depend on government priorities
  • Long, competitive proposal cycles
  • Few small-body missions are funded at a time
Simplified modelWin study contracts. Revenue = contracts × average value. Costs = delivery cost per contract plus yearly overhead.

Try the numbers (per year)

Revenue / year
–
Costs / year
–
Profit / year
–
Margin
–
Break-even
– contracts
Payback on up-front cost
–

The XLSX has a working Summary tab. The P&L, Capex and Sensitivity tabs are locked previews: they are in the full report, coming soon. We store your email to send you the link and a few short updates about the report. Unsubscribe any time. See our privacy page.

0320+ years, realistically beyond any investment horizon

Regolith for shielding and construction (very long shot)

The opportunityCollect loose surface rock and deliver it in space as radiation shielding or construction feedstock, instead of launching mass from Earth. Its value depends on future demand beyond low Earth orbit.

Who pays

Future in-space customers such as propellant depots, stations and builders. No anchor customer for space-sourced regolith exists today.

Key risks

  • No anchor customer for space-sourced regolith
  • About 0.8 years each way on an ideal transfer
  • Unproven extraction tech; no resource extraction from any small body has been demonstrated
  • Legal acceptance of space resource rights is still developing
  • Cheaper launch from Earth undercuts the value of space regolith
Simplified modelRegolith delivered per year = extraction × usable fraction × transport efficiency. Revenue = delivered kg × value. Cash only starts after development plus the trip out and back, then the result is discounted and multiplied by the chance of success.

Try the numbers (per year)

Revenue / year
–
Costs / year
–
Profit / year
–
Margin
–
Break-even
– kg of regolith per year
Simplified NPV
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The full SRI sample model, which also counts launch mass and timing in more detail, gives a base-case NPV of about −$959M (bear −$1,981M, bull $6,492M). This calculator is simpler, so its NPV differs.

The XLSX has a working Summary tab. The P&L, Capex and Sensitivity tabs are locked previews: they are in the full report, coming soon. We store your email to send you the link and a few short updates about the report. Unsubscribe any time. See our privacy page.

Space uses are speculative and long-horizon. Everything here is a simplified teaching model with assumptions you can change. Nothing on this page is investment advice.